Saturday, May 9, 2015

Housing, the 2015 General Election and Beyond: 10 Key Themes

Housing, the 2015 General Election and Beyond: 10 Key Themes

In his presentation about housing and public opinion at the Chartered Institute of Housing London conference, Ben Marshall outlined 10 key trends and themes.


Transcript

  • 1. Housing, #GE2015 & beyond 10 key themes @BenM_IM 28.4.15 #CIHLonConf
  • 2. 1. Housing is a more prominent issue
  • 3. Manifest in this… 3
  • 4. And this… 4 Source: Social Market Foundation
  • 5. 2. This is not surprising
  • 6. 0 5 10 15 20 Jan 2014 Feb 2014 Mar 2014 Apr 2014 May 2014 Jun 2014 Jul 2014 Aug 2014 Sep 2014 Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Mar 2015 Apr 2015 May 2015 2014-15 2009-10 2004-5 14 9 5 Salience has been building…. Q1/Q2 What is the most important/other important issues facing Britain? [UNPROMPTED] % mentioning housing Base: c1,000 GB adults per monthSource: Ipsos MORI Issues Index GE (where no measure (x4 2009-10), previous month % continued) 6
  • 7. Reflects ‘generation strains’… 7
  • 8. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 All 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ % buy % rent 39And aspiration: the (second) British religion Source: Ipsos MORI/#HousingDayBase: All GB adults (1,997), 24 Oct-2 Nov 2014 8 Q. If you had a free choice, would you choose to rent your housing or would you choose to buy?
  • 9. 0 1 2 3 4 5 Not only unsurprising, but well timed 9 Base: c800 British adults 18+ giving a voting intention Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Leaders Parties Policies Q. If you had a total of ten points according to how important each of these was to you, how many would you allocate to the leaders of the party you intend to voting for, how many to its policies, and how many to the party as a whole?
  • 10. 3. But it is still ‘second order’…
  • 11. …behind the big hitters Pensions/ benefits Europe Foreign affairs/defence Unemployment 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 0 10 20 30 40 50 Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c. 1,000 British adults 18+ What will decide your vote? Health Economy Asylum & immigration Education Q. What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today? Q. Looking ahead to the next general election, which, if any issues do you think will be very important to you in helping you decide which party to vote for? Most important issues Crime Taxation For vote decision – average of Foreign affairs and defence, pensions and benefits Poverty/inequality Housing 11
  • 12. Four key drivers to an issue being ‘sticky’ Engagement✓ Source: Sir Robert Worcester and Prof. Roger Mortimore (Ipsos MORI) Explaining Labour’s Landslide Differentiation✓ Ability Will 1312 ✓ ✓ ? ?
  • 13. 4. Likely because weaker sense of government agency
  • 14. Will voting help solve the housing crisis? 14
  • 15. “WE did not build enough homes” (Ed Miliband, 16.4.15) 15
  • 16. 5. Crisis felt much less locally (& differently)
  • 17. Q1/Q2 What is the most important/other important issues facing Britain? [UNPROMPTED] 74% national, 46% local 17 48% 40% Women Men 54% 45-54 37% 38% 18-24 39% ‘AB’ 51% ‘DE’ 65% Social renter56% Private renter 39% Mortgage 76% London 55% South 39% North 39% Scotland Base: 1,010 GB adults 18+, 11-13 Jan 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI/CIH % agree “There is a housing crisis in my local area 65+
  • 18. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Jan 2014 Feb 2014 Mar 2014 Apr 2014 May 2014 Jun 2014 Jul 2014 Aug 2014 Sep 2014 Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Mar 2015 Apr 2015 May 2015 2014-15 2009-10 38 10 Q1/Q2 What is the most important/other important issues facing Britain? [UNPROMPTED] % mentioning housing Base: c1,000 GB adults per month, c100+ in LondonSource: Ipsos MORI Issues Index GE (where no measure (x4 2009-10), previous month % continued) A top three issue (and top issue for London 2013-) 18
  • 19. There are different political (& geographic?) perspectives Base: 1,010 GB adults (telephone) 18+, 11-13 Jan 2015 103 MPs (face-to-face), 4 Nov-19 Dec 2014 ‘Voters’ = say ‘certain’ will vote for party at general election (291 Con, 256 Lab, 68 Lib Dem) MPs; 45 Con, 45 Lab, 11 Lib Dem 15% Con MPs 76% Lab MPs Lib Dem MPs 34% Con voters 51% 52% Lib Dem voters Source: Ipsos MORI/CIH % agree “There is a housing crisis in my local area (public)/“…in my constituency” (MPs) 83% 19
  • 20. 6. Prices have been the iconic issue
  • 21. Prices front of mind Q. Which, if any, of the following do you see as the 2 or 3 most important problems facing the housing market in Britain today? Base: 1,009 GB adults 16-75, online, 10-13 October 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI/ JLL Size of deposits 31% Lack of social housing 30% House prices are too high 47% Not enough new homes being built 20% Rents too high 28% Too many people from abroad buying homes 21% Housing benefit changes 14% Banks not giving out mortgages 15% Stamp duty is too high 14% Big homes occupied by 1 or 2 people 5% Too many second homes 13% Not enough schemes for renters to get on ladder 12% 21
  • 22. Base: 1,009 GB adults 16-75 (online), 10-13 October 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI/ JLL Base: 103 MPs (face-to-face), 4 Nov – 19 Dec 2014 Reducing the no. of empty homes Making it easier for FTBs to own/part- own their homes 28% Improving run down estates 27% Reducing the no. of empty homes 32% Tackling homelessness & rough sleeping 22% Tackling bad landlords 15% Making homes more energy efficient 12% Building more homes which are affordable 35% Building more homes which are affordable 68% Reducing the no. of empty homes 26% Improving run down estates 22% Making homes more energy efficient 16%Tackling homeless- ness & rough sleeping 5% Making it easier for FTBs to own/part-own their homes 39% Tackling bad landlords 17% Q. This list shows a selection of issues associated with housing in Britain. Which one or two, if any, do you think should be the highest priority for the government to deal with?… Public MPs Source: Ipsos MORI/ CIH
  • 23. 7. But supply is becoming the silver bullet
  • 24. The worm turned… 24
  • 25. “Yes, but…” 25
  • 26. 8. Remarkable shift in opinion on supply
  • 27. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2010 2013 2014 % support % oppose % neither Source: British Social Attitudes Survey Britain for Homes? Much more so… 24 Q. Would you support or oppose more homes being built in your local area? 27
  • 28. 39 40 25 60 …it meant building on greenfield …it helped to bring more and better facilities to this area …more were built per year than have been built per year in the past 58 27 % Support % Oppose But opposition (‘nimbyism’) hasn’t been defeated Base: 1,002 residents 16+ Source: Ipsos MORI 28 Q. Again thinking about…and, in principle, to what extent would you support or oppose new homes being built in the future if… 54 32 In principle
  • 29. 9. These trends could strengthen as ‘political power’ of private renters increases
  • 30. ‘Voting power’ x2.5owner-occupiers vs renters Size & turnout are key elements to this Source: Ipsos MORI election poll aggregates (GB) 2010, ONS Census 30
  • 31. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Owners Mortgage Private renters Social renters Con Lab LibDem UKIP Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor aggregate 2014 (vote share based on those ‘certain to vote’) PRS & mortgage had been ‘bellweather’ tenures… % vote share 2014 aggregate 24 31
  • 32. 10. Broad ‘retail offer’ from housing needed
  • 33. Mixed tenure provision 33 Q. If new homes were to be built in your local area, which if any of these types of homes do you think are most needed? 36% 34% 23% 6% 15% 12% Homes to rent from local authorities or housing associations Homes to buy Homes to part- own and part- rent Homes to rent from private landlord No new homes needed Don't know Base: 2,000 GB adults,16-75 (online), 30 May-4 June 2014 Source: Ipsos MOR/CIH
  • 34. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ % social % private 24 39 % Social housing: safety net & springboard 34 Q. As you may know there are two main ways that a household can rent their home, private-rented, when it is being rented from a private landlord, and social rented from a local council or housing association. Which of the two ways of renting do you think would best provide… And, overall, which would you say is the best form of renting? Source: Ipsos MORI/#HousingDayBase: All GB adults (1,997), 24 Oct-2 Nov 2014
  • 35. 1% 21% 24% 53% The ‘fifth tenure’ remains a blindspot I am interested in buying or renting an intermediate market home and have already applied I don’t know enough about intermediate housing to know if I am interested or not Q. Which of the following, if any, best describes your attitude towards intermediate market housing? I am interested in buying or renting an intermediate market home but have NOT applied I am NOT interested in buying or renting an intermediate market home Base: All potential consumers (3,365), 2010 Source: Ipsos MORI/HCA 3535
  • 36. Finally… don’t forget the audience (& the lived reality)
  • 37. Understand your audience…(perils of perception) 9 16 18 20 21 16 3/4 or more Between 1/2 and 3/4 Around half Between 1/4 and 1/2 Less than 1/4 Don't know Base: 1,699 adults aged 16+, April-May 2012 Actual = 10%: http://www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk Source: Ipsos MORI/British Property Federation 37 Q. ‘Developed land’ is defined as… What proportion of land in England do you think is developed?
  • 38. Applies to these too… 38
  • 39. A warning (in a silver cloud) Source: Ipsos MORI Base: 837 adults aged 16+ across England 13 March-1 April 2015 Q. To what extent do you support or oppose Government borrowing money to fund the building of more affordable housing for people to buy or rent in England? Base: 790 adults aged 16+ across England 13 March-1 April 2015 It is estimated by Cambridge University that England needs to build around 240,000 new homes a year to keep pace with demand. This number of homes has not been built in any single year since the 1970s. During this time, private house builders have never built more than 175,000 homes a year. % support Question asked with preamble 54 26 20 47 27 25 % neither support/oppose % oppose 39
  • 40. @BenM_IM Movement not moment Supply, agency, strategy Good luck!